Flooded
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.85
19.79 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $12.59 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.57%
26.4K openings, odds method
Variance
11.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 39
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.85 | 90.90% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $13.90 | 90.89% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.05 | 90.93% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.5%restricted 0.5%extraordinary 1.0%red 0.5%industrial 0.5%Immortal 0.5%classified 0.7%mil spec 0.8%consumer 90.0%best hit $655 (46.59x)