Forever Alone

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$64.00

91.43 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $58.18 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.78%

3,512 openings, odds method

Variance

15.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 43

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

204 openings · below min

7 days

90.34%±13.283,338 openings

30 days

88.78%±12.953,512 openings

since tracking started

88.78%±12.953,512 openings

24.5%79.0%133.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	204	78.92%±53.7	—	odds
7d	3,338	90.34%±13.3	−0.1σ	odds
30d	3,512	88.78%±13.0	−0.3σ	odds
All	3,512	88.78%±13.0	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,512 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$4,578 6,540 coins	7.9%	2	3.5	0.57×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 500	$2,737 3,910 coins	9.4%	3	7.0	0.43×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 333	$1,100 1,572 coins	5.7%	14	10.5	1.33×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 250	$1,033 1,475 coins	7.1%	11	14.0	0.78×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 167	$937 1,339 coins	9.7%	31	21.1	1.47×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 143	$918 1,311 coins	11.0%	29	24.6	1.18×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 125	$723 1,033 coins	9.9%	33	28.1	1.17×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 111	$493 705 coins	7.6%	26	31.6	0.82×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$407 582 coins	7.0%	40	35.1	1.14×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 50	$274 392 coins	9.4%	54	70.2	0.77×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 33	$228 326 coins	11.8%	111	105.4	1.05×
Sticker \| Sherry(Holo)sticker · remarkable	22.5%	$2.34 3.35 coins	0.9%	793	790.2	1.00×
Sticker \| Tamara (Holo)sticker · remarkable	22.5%	$2.32 3.31 coins	0.9%	820	790.2	1.04×
Sticker \| Kimberly (Holo)sticker · remarkable	22.5%	$2.19 3.13 coins	0.8%	767	790.2	0.97×
Sticker \| Ivette (Holo)sticker · Mythical	22.5%	$2.12 3.03 coins	0.8%	778	790.2	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$64.0491.48 coins$4,5786,540 coins71.49x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireDer beste Uwe$64.0491.48 coins$4,5786,540 coins71.49x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4Der beste Uwe$64.0091.43 coins$2,7373,910 coins42.76x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$65.0892.97 coins$2,7373,910 coins42.06x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4Der beste Uwe$65.0892.97 coins$2,7373,910 coins42.06x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4gaxon$65.0892.97 coins$2,7373,910 coins42.06x6d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire$65.0892.97 coins$1,1441,634 coins17.58x3d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire$65.0892.97 coins$1,1441,634 coins17.58x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Sherry(Holo)sticker · remarkable$64.0091.43 coins$2.343.35 coins0.04x2h

Sticker | Ivette (Holo)sticker · Mythical$64.0091.43 coins$2.123.03 coins0.03x2h

Sticker | Sherry(Holo)sticker · remarkableKickerrrrrrrr$64.0091.43 coins$2.343.35 coins0.04x2h

Sticker | Kimberly (Holo)sticker · remarkable$64.0091.43 coins$2.193.13 coins0.03x2h

Sticker | Ivette (Holo)sticker · Mythical$64.0091.43 coins$2.123.03 coins0.03x2h

Sticker | Kimberly (Holo)sticker · remarkableKickerrrrrrrr$64.0091.43 coins$2.193.13 coins0.03x2h

Sticker | Sherry(Holo)sticker · remarkable$64.0091.43 coins$2.343.35 coins0.04x8h

Sticker | Kimberly (Holo)sticker · remarkable$64.0091.43 coins$2.193.13 coins0.03x8h

Sticker | Ivette (Holo)sticker · MythicalBlair$64.0091.43 coins$2.123.03 coins0.03x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$64.00	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$64.04	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$65.08	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.3%legendary 0.7%remarkable 67.5%Mythical 22.5%best hit $4,578 (71.49x)