Fortress
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$62.82
89.74 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $57.11 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.55%
1,167 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,167 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 10,000 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $263 375 coins | 41.4% | 116 | 105.0 | 1.10× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $241 344 coins | 1.1% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 80 | $223 318 coins | 4.9% | 13 | 14.6 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $163 233 coins | 25.7% | 106 | 105.0 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.5% | $113 162 coins | 20.8% | 132 | 122.4 | 1.08× |
| MP7 | Cirrus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $10.91 15.59 coins | 3.8% | 226 | 233.4 | 0.97× |
| Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 0.8% | 348 | 350.1 | 0.99× |
| AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $1.00 1.43 coins | 0.4% | 224 | 233.4 | 0.96× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBeastafiedBeast$62.8289.74 coins$1.582.26 coins0.03x
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$62.8289.74 coins$113162 coins1.81x
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$62.8289.74 coins$113162 coins1.81x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $62.82 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $62.82 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $62.45 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $63.59 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $63.60 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $63.59 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $63.58 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.0%mil spec 40.0%restricted 30.0%best hit —