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Fortune

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$629.29
899 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $572.08 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.99%
695 openings, odds method
Variance
27.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 44
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
132 openings · below min
7 days
79.42%±39.84663 openings
30 days
79.99%±38.90695 openings
since tracking started
79.99%±38.90695 openings
15.5%105.7%196.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h132105.93%±89.6—odds
7d66379.42%±39.8−0.6σodds
30d69579.99%±38.9−0.6σodds
All69579.99%±38.9−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 695 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) + 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 10,000$140K 200,000 coins2.4%00.1—
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 2,000$98K 140,000 coins8.6%00.3—
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 1,000$27.5K 39,250 coins4.8%00.7—
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base1 in 667$25K 35,730 coins6.6%01.00.00×
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 500$21.8K 31,155 coins7.6%31.42.16×
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 400$10.7K 15,300 coins4.7%11.70.58×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 154$8,057 11,510 coins9.2%64.51.33×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 118$7,336 10,480 coins10.9%65.91.02×
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 333$6,780 9,685 coins3.6%22.10.96×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 200$3,930 5,615 coins3.4%43.51.15×
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50$3,213 4,590 coins11.2%1013.90.72×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 65$2,205 3,150 coins5.9%1210.71.12×
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 100$1,949 2,785 coins3.4%77.01.01×
AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 45$1,775 2,535 coins6.8%2115.31.37×
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 83$1,467 2,096 coins3.1%108.31.20×
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 40$1,136 1,623 coins5.0%1217.40.69×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 67$1,081 1,544 coins2.8%1410.41.34×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer42.5%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%290295.40.98×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer42.5%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%297295.41.01×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkablem1chi$629899 coins$21.8K31,155 coins34.66x
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$629899 coins$21.8K31,155 coins34.66x
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$629899 coins$21.8K31,155 coins34.66x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$637910 coins$10.7K15,300 coins16.80x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlm1chi$629899 coins$8,05711,510 coins12.80x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlm1chi$629899 coins$8,05711,510 coins12.80x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$629899 coins$8,05711,510 coins12.80x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$629899 coins$8,05711,510 coins12.80x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$637910 coins$8,05711,510 coins12.64x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$637910 coins$8,05711,510 coins12.64x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$629899 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$629899 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$629899 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$629899 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerm1chi$629899 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$629899 coins$1,9492,785 coins3.10x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$629899 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$629899 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerm1chi$629899 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$629899 coins$1,4672,096 coins2.33x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$62990.91%19
3 Nov, 16:07 UTC$63790.91%19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$63790.91%19
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.0%base 0.1%remarkable 0.5%extraordinary 0.3%covert 11.1%classified 2.0%consumer 85.0%best hit $21.8K (34.66x)