Fragile

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.73

5.33 coins

Advertised RTP

90.95%

EV $3.39 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.96%

9,978 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

40.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.09%±8.06947 openings

7 days

91.56%±2.807,508 openings

30 days

90.96%±2.439,978 openings

since tracking started

90.96%±2.439,978 openings

78.5%87.3%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	947	87.09%±8.06	−0.9σ	odds
7d	7,508	91.56%±2.80	+0.5σ	odds
30d	9,978	90.96%±2.43	+0.0σ	odds
All	9,978	90.96%±2.43	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,978 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 76,923	$373 533 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$132 189 coins	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 14,925	$69.57 99.39 coins	0.1%	1	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$66.79 95.42 coins	1.0%	2	5.2	0.39×
Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming (Holo) \| Cologne 2016sticker · remarkable	1 in 4,167	$60.72 86.75 coins	0.4%	0	2.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$59.44 84.91 coins	0.2%	1	1.0	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Cologne 2015sticker · high	1 in 714	$52.29 74.7 coins	2.2%	18	14.0	1.29×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$50.96 72.8 coins	1.1%	9	7.5	1.20×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 286	$39.89 56.99 coins	4.1%	37	34.9	1.06×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$19.69 28.13 coins	5.8%	105	99.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$16.90 24.14 coins	5.0%	99	99.8	0.99×
Sticker \| Team Immunity (Foil) \| Cologne 2015sticker · exotic	1 in 83	$14.95 21.35 coins	5.3%	122	119.7	1.02×
Souvenir P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$6.90 9.85 coins	3.0%	134	149.7	0.90×
Sticker \| Countdown (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 38	$4.38 6.25 coins	3.4%	286	263.4	1.09×
Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$3.26 4.65 coins	1.9%	209	199.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	30.0%	$3.04 4.35 coins	26.9%	2,934	2993.4	0.98×
Sealed Graffiti \| Team Liquid \| Boston 2018graffiti · high	30.0%	$2.44 3.48 coins	21.5%	2,997	2993.4	1.00×
Sticker \| Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable	30.0%	$2.01 2.87 coins	17.8%	3,024	2993.4	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sealed Graffiti | Team Liquid | Boston 2018graffiti · high$3.735.33 coins$2.443.48 coins0.65x13m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$3.735.33 coins$3.044.35 coins0.82x13m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil specdinmor$3.735.33 coins$3.044.35 coins0.82x13m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$3.735.33 coins$3.044.35 coins0.82x24m

Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.735.33 coins$3.264.65 coins0.87x24m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPsIcHo csgoroll.com$3.735.33 coins$16.9024.14 coins4.53x24m

Sealed Graffiti | Team Liquid | Boston 2018graffiti · high$3.735.33 coins$2.443.48 coins0.65x25m

Sealed Graffiti | Team Liquid | Boston 2018graffiti · highPurple Aki$3.735.33 coins$2.443.48 coins0.65x25m

Sealed Graffiti | Team Liquid | Boston 2018graffiti · highPsIcHo csgoroll.com$3.735.33 coins$2.443.48 coins0.65x25m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.73	90.95%	18
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$3.78	90.83%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$3.75	90.96%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.75	90.96%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 0.0%restricted 4.0%industrial 0.0%classified 0.5%remarkable 30.0%high 30.1%exotic 3.8%mil spec 31.5%best hit —