Freefall
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$50.44
72.06 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $45.85 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.88%
55 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 55 openings and 15.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classifiedVeckans$50.4472.06 coins$84.00120 coins1.67x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertMOHAMMED$50.4472.06 coins$107153 coins2.12x
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New)weapon · mil specna'thanx$50.4472.06 coins$29.1341.61 coins0.58x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified$50.3871.97 coins$79.80114 coins1.58x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $50.44 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $50.53 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.38 | 90.90% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.5%covert 32.5%classified 5.0%extraordinary 2.0%mil spec 20.0%restricted 40.0%best hit —