Freeflow
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.65
56.65 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $36.05 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.95%
1,203 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,204 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 500 | $356 508 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| ★ Bayonet | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $151 216 coins | 16.8% | 57 | 48.2 | 1.18× |
| ★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $150 214 coins | 8.3% | 31 | 24.1 | 1.29× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 100 | $146 208 coins | 4.0% | 14 | 12.0 | 1.16× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $94.50 135 coins | 26.2% | 125 | 120.4 | 1.04× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $51.64 73.77 coins | 7.2% | 54 | 60.2 | 0.90× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $47.80 68.28 coins | 26.5% | 244 | 240.8 | 1.01× |
| PP-Bizon | Seabird (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $14.29 20.41 coins | 7.9% | 240 | 240.8 | 1.00× |
| R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 37.8% | $1.03 1.47 coins | 1.1% | 438 | 455.1 | 0.96× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$39.6556.65 coins$47.8068.28 coins1.21x
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$39.6556.65 coins$146208 coins3.67x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$39.6556.65 coins$47.8068.28 coins1.21x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$39.6556.65 coins$47.8068.28 coins1.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $39.65 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.98 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.55 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $39.82 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.88 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.2%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 20.0%consumer 20.0%classified 37.8%best hit —