Frequency
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.38
16.25 coins
Advertised RTP
90.94%
EV $10.34 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.45%
3,179 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,179 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial★ UnToUcHaBlE ™$11.3816.25 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $11.38 | 90.94% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $11.38 | 90.89% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.38 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.24 | 90.88% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.26 | 90.90% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 3.2%classified 35.0%red 0.5%industrial 61.3%best hit —