Fuel Tank

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$44.54

63.63 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $40.49 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.67%

1,345 openings, odds method

Variance

8.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

34 openings · below min

7 days

86.76%±16.261,249 openings

30 days

88.67%±15.671,345 openings

since tracking started

88.67%±15.671,345 openings

-0.5%96.3%193.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	34	94.94%±97.3	—	odds
7d	1,249	86.76%±16.3	−0.5σ	odds
30d	1,345	88.67%±15.7	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,345	88.67%±15.7	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,345 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$2,230 3,185 coins	5.5%	1	1.3	0.74×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 333	$1,299 1,855 coins	9.6%	3	4.0	0.74×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 167	$630 900 coins	9.3%	13	8.1	1.61×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$587 838 coins	14.5%	10	13.5	0.74×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 67	$223 318 coins	8.2%	22	20.2	1.09×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$168 240 coins	8.3%	25	26.9	0.93×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 22	$137 195 coins	15.2%	61	60.5	1.01×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	30.0%	$29.41 42.02 coins	21.8%	385	403.5	0.95×
SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	30.0%	$6.07 8.67 coins	4.5%	420	403.5	1.04×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$4.12 5.89 coins	3.1%	405	403.5	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$45.3964.84 coins$2,3843,405 coins52.51x5d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyKickerrrrrrrr$45.3964.84 coins$1,3411,915 coins29.53x3d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$45.3964.84 coins$1,3411,915 coins29.53x3d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$45.3964.84 coins$1,3411,915 coins29.53x8d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$44.5463.63 coins$630900 coins14.14x2d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$45.3964.84 coins$622889 coins13.71x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted$44.5463.63 coins$4.125.89 coins0.09x18h

SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$44.5463.63 coins$6.078.67 coins0.14x18h

MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$44.5463.63 coins$29.4142.02 coins0.66x18h

MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert☢AnDeRsSoN☢$44.5463.63 coins$29.4142.02 coins0.66x18h

SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$44.5463.63 coins$6.078.67 coins0.14x19h

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted$44.5463.63 coins$4.125.89 coins0.09x19h

★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$44.5463.63 coins$168240 coins3.77x19h

MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covertRiggson$44.5463.63 coins$29.4142.02 coins0.66x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$44.54	90.91%	10
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$44.47	90.92%	10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$45.39	90.91%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 39.9%industrial 30.0%restricted 30.0%best hit $2,384 (52.51x)