Fugitive
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.99
9.99 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $6.36 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.95%
5,188 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,198 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $6.99 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $7.01 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.01 | 90.88% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.12 | 90.95% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $7.15 | 90.94% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.16 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.13 | 90.93% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 18.1%covert 0.5%restricted 47.4%classified 18.0%consumer 4.0%industrial 12.0%best hit —