Full Force

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.93

27.04 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $17.20 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.87%

1,456 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88 openings · below min

7 days

89.64%±6.691,025 openings

30 days

88.87%±5.641,456 openings

since tracking started

88.87%±5.641,456 openings

53.5%76.5%99.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	88	76.63%±22.4	—	odds
7d	1,025	89.64%±6.69	−0.4σ	odds
30d	1,456	88.87%±5.64	−0.7σ	odds
All	1,456	88.87%±5.64	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,460 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$957 1,367 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 20,000	$451 644 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$274 392 coins	0.8%	1	0.7	—
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$97.30 139 coins	17.0%	40	43.8	0.91×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$95.90 137 coins	0.6%	1	1.5	0.68×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	10.8%	$33.52 47.88 coins	21.1%	161	158.3	1.02×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$28.64 40.91 coins	16.6%	145	146.0	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$24.22 34.6 coins	4.2%	39	43.8	0.89×
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$19.72 28.17 coins	5.7%	80	73.0	1.10×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.0%	$16.41 23.44 coins	9.5%	148	146.0	1.01×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$15.62 22.31 coins	9.1%	135	146.0	0.92×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	15.0%	$13.21 18.87 coins	11.5%	213	219.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.83 2.61 coins	1.6%	226	219.0	1.03×
Sawed-Off \| Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	18.0%	$1.75 2.5 coins	1.8%	271	262.8	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$18.9327.04 coins$1.752.5 coins0.09x23m

Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer᠌ ᠌Liwon$18.9327.04 coins$1.752.5 coins0.09x23m

MAC-10 | Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$18.9327.04 coins$33.5247.88 coins1.77x23m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$18.9327.04 coins$28.6440.91 coins1.51x23m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$18.9327.04 coins$16.4123.44 coins0.87x23m

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$18.9327.04 coins$13.2118.87 coins0.70x23m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$18.9327.04 coins$1.832.61 coins0.10x36m

SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedUser#89$18.9327.04 coins$19.7228.17 coins1.04x36m

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$18.9327.04 coins$13.2118.87 coins0.70x36m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC	$18.93	90.90%	14
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$18.94	90.90%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$18.59	90.91%	14
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$18.82	90.92%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$18.87	90.90%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 11.0%mil spec 3.0%classified 43.0%restricted 25.0%consumer 18.0%best hit —