Fungi

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$304.33

435 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $276.66 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

104.43%

388 openings, odds method

Variance

6.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

101.50%±43.35124 openings

7 days

103.56%±26.15339 openings

30 days

104.43%±24.43388 openings

since tracking started

104.43%±24.43388 openings

57.5%101.5%145.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	124	101.50%±43.3	+0.5σ	odds
7d	339	103.56%±26.1	+0.9σ	odds
30d	388	104.43%±24.4	+1.1σ	odds
All	388	104.43%±24.4	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 388 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$6,125 8,750 coins	11.1%	3	1.9	1.55×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 125	$5,684 8,120 coins	16.4%	3	3.1	0.97×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50	$1,514 2,163 coins	10.9%	8	7.8	1.03×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 83	$1,411 2,015 coins	6.1%	3	4.7	0.64×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 12	$923 1,318 coins	28.3%	46	33.0	1.39×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 20	$806 1,152 coins	14.6%	20	19.4	1.03×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$566 809 coins	8.2%	14	15.5	0.90×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$398 569 coins	4.3%	13	11.6	1.12×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	86	97.0	0.89×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	98	97.0	1.01×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	94	97.0	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$304435 coins$6,1258,750 coins20.13x21h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$311444 coins$6,1258,750 coins19.71x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emeraldtashud$311444 coins$6,1258,750 coins19.71x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$311444 coins$5,7758,250 coins18.59x7d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$304435 coins$5,6848,120 coins18.68x21h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$304435 coins$5,6848,120 coins18.68x23h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$311444 coins$1,5562,223 coins5.01x5d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubym1chi$304435 coins$1,5142,163 coins4.98x22h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubym1chi$304435 coins$1,5142,163 coins4.98x23h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerPontus$304435 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x11h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$304435 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x11h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$304435 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x11h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$304435 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x11h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$304435 coins$9231,318 coins3.03x12h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4achilles$304435 coins$9231,318 coins3.03x12h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerachilles$304435 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x12h

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$304435 coins$8061,152 coins2.65x12h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$304435 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$304	90.91%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$304	90.91%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$311	90.91%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.0%legendary 2.0%extraordinary 3.0%consumer 75.0%best hit $6,125 (20.13x)