Fuzzy
A case on CSGORoll (60%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.35
49.07 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $31.23 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.94%
1,665 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,668 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$34.3549.07 coins$1.071.53 coins0.03x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTyrone$34.3549.07 coins$1.071.53 coins0.03x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$34.3549.07 coins$1.071.53 coins0.03x
★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covertJocke.1337(eliiite)$34.3549.07 coins$61.9488.49 coins1.80x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $34.35 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $34.47 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $35.41 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $35.41 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $35.34 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.37 | 90.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.2%classified 10.5%extraordinary 13.3%restricted 31.5%industrial 3.5%mil spec 30.0%best hit —