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Galaxy

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$115.13
164 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $104.66 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.80%
640 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
81 openings · below min
7 days
90.88%±11.05522 openings
30 days
92.80%±10.00640 openings
since tracking started
92.80%±10.00640 openings
55.0%83.3%111.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h8183.19%±27.6—odds
7d52290.88%±11.0−0.0σodds
30d64092.80%±10.00+0.4σodds
All64092.80%±10.00+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 640 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 667$947 1,353 coins1.4%11.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 1,000$918 1,312 coins0.9%10.6—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 200$751 1,073 coins3.6%43.21.25×
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 100$643 918 coins6.1%66.40.94×
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 125$620 886 coins4.7%95.11.76×
★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 67$509 727 coins7.3%119.61.15×
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 47$426 609 coins8.8%1013.80.73×
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 333$307 438 coins0.9%31.91.56×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 17$284 406 coins16.3%3438.40.89×
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 29$229 327 coins7.7%2822.41.25×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 22$216 308 coins9.3%2128.80.73×
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 43$134 191 coins3.0%1815.01.20×
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted17.0%$115 165 coins18.8%111108.81.02×
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified18.0%$49.00 70 coins8.4%106115.20.92×
AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec19.0%$11.80 16.85 coins2.1%123121.61.01×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted23.2%$3.71 5.3 coins0.8%154148.21.04×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$112160 coins$9811,402 coins8.76x
AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$112160 coins$9261,323 coins8.26x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$112160 coins$7541,077 coins6.73x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$112160 coins$7541,077 coins6.73x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$112160 coins$7541,077 coins6.73x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$115164 coins$7511,073 coins6.52x
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$112160 coins$655935 coins5.84x
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$112160 coins$655935 coins5.84x
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$112160 coins$655935 coins5.84x
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$112160 coins$655935 coins5.84x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$115164 coins$3.715.3 coins0.03x
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedUser#89$115164 coins$115165 coins1.00x
AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil specKlass 2$115164 coins$11.8016.85 coins0.10x
AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$115164 coins$11.8016.85 coins0.10x
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedKlass 2$115164 coins$49.0070 coins0.43x
AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$115164 coins$11.8016.85 coins0.10x
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$115164 coins$115165 coins1.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert☯♥㊛$115164 coins$284406 coins2.47x
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$115164 coins$49.0070 coins0.43x
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$115164 coins$115165 coins1.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$11590.91%16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$11490.91%16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$11290.91%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.2%extraordinary 2.6%restricted 40.2%classified 18.0%mil spec 19.0%best hit $981 (8.76x)