Gangster

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.39

23.42 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $14.90 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.79%

1,165 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

34.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

56.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

97.72%±10.89136 openings

7 days

91.03%±3.761,077 openings

30 days

90.79%±3.611,165 openings

since tracking started

90.79%±3.611,165 openings

86.0%97.8%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	136	97.72%±10.9	+1.2σ	odds
7d	1,077	91.03%±3.76	+0.1σ	odds
30d	1,165	90.79%±3.61	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,165	90.79%±3.61	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,165 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 400	$83.30 119 coins	1.4%	3	2.9	1.03×
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 400	$79.80 114 coins	1.3%	2	2.9	0.69×
Souvenir AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$65.21 93.15 coins	2.2%	6	5.8	1.03×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 133	$61.54 87.92 coins	3.1%	7	8.7	0.80×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$33.61 48.02 coins	2.3%	7	11.7	0.60×
AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary	1 in 17	$32.65 46.64 coins	13.1%	83	69.9	1.19×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$21.74 31.06 coins	11.7%	107	93.2	1.15×
Patch \| The Bosspatch · exotic	1 in 12	$21.64 30.92 coins	12.3%	95	99.0	0.96×
USP-S \| Caiman (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$20.43 29.19 coins	12.3%	88	104.8	0.84×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$17.03 24.33 coins	10.7%	110	108.9	1.01×
Sticker \| Renegades (Foil) \| London 2018sticker · exotic	1 in 10	$8.15 11.64 coins	5.3%	114	113.6	1.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	10.5%	$7.84 11.2 coins	5.5%	211	122.3	1.72×
Sticker \| Global Elite (Foil)sticker · exotic	14.5%	$7.75 11.07 coins	7.5%	175	168.9	1.04×
Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	21.6%	$7.68 10.97 coins	11.2%	157	252.2	0.62×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Patch | The Bosspatch · exotic$16.3923.42 coins$21.6430.92 coins1.32x3h

AWP | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary$16.3923.42 coins$32.6546.64 coins1.99x3h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.3923.42 coins$17.0324.33 coins1.04x3h

Patch | The Bosspatch · exoticsteffyow;D$16.3923.42 coins$21.6430.92 coins1.32x3h

Sticker | Global Elite (Foil)sticker · exotic$16.3923.42 coins$7.7511.07 coins0.47x3h

Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$16.3923.42 coins$7.6810.97 coins0.47x3h

Patch | The Bosspatch · exotic$16.3923.42 coins$21.6430.92 coins1.32x3h

Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrialsteffyow;D$16.3923.42 coins$7.6810.97 coins0.47x3h

USP-S | Caiman (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$16.3923.42 coins$20.4329.19 coins1.25x3h

Patch | The Bosspatch · exotic$16.3923.42 coins$21.6430.92 coins1.32x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$16.39	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.89	90.92%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 8.3%rare 0.3%covert 0.5%classified 9.8%restricted 10.3%Legendary 6.0%exotic 32.8%pink 10.5%industrial 21.6%best hit —