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Gas

A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$28.75
41.07 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $26.14 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.24%
14.4K openings, odds method
Variance
147.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
1,401 openings · below min
7 days
105.12%±21.0612.7K openings
30 days
100.24%±19.8014.4K openings
since tracking started
100.24%±19.8014.4K openings
37.0%101.3%165.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,401101.24%±63.5—odds
7d12.7K105.12%±21.1+1.3σodds
30d14.4K100.24%±19.8+0.9σodds
All14.4K100.24%±19.8+0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$6,465 9,235 coins24.7%1514.41.04×
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$6,269 8,955 coins24.0%1814.41.25×
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$5,719 8,170 coins21.9%1514.41.04×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 1,000$1,988 2,840 coins7.6%2014.41.38×
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$1,467 2,096 coins5.6%914.40.62×
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$1,194 1,706 coins4.6%1614.41.11×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$638 912 coins2.4%1214.40.83×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$533 762 coins2.0%1314.40.90×
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$433 619 coins1.7%2714.41.87×
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$356 508 coins1.4%1414.40.97×
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted99.0%$1.09 1.55 coins4.1%14,29014304.51.00×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.5142.16 coins$6,6439,490 coins225.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.5142.16 coins$6,6439,490 coins225.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.5142.16 coins$6,6439,490 coins225.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldRobond$29.5142.16 coins$6,6439,490 coins225.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.5142.16 coins$6,6439,490 coins225.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.5142.16 coins$6,6439,490 coins225.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldGdock$29.5142.16 coins$6,6439,490 coins225.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldSilvestre$29.5142.16 coins$6,6439,490 coins225.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.5142.16 coins$6,6439,490 coins225.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$28.7541.07 coins$6,4659,235 coins224.9x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedBismillah Alrahim Alraham$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.7541.07 coins$1.091.55 coins0.04x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$28.7590.91%11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$28.8290.91%11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$29.5190.90%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.9%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 99.0%best hit $6,643 (225.1x)