Gauntlet
A case on CSGORoll (gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$93.83
134 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $85.30 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
130.40%
55 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 55 openings and 9.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$93.83134 coins$2,0332,905 coins21.67x
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified$93.83134 coins$84.00120 coins0.90x
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$93.83134 coins$2,0332,905 coins21.67x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classifiedGAMASIAK$93.83134 coins$84.00120 coins0.90x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $93.83 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $93.41 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $93.81 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $93.80 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 14.0%legendary 0.5%covert 17.0%classified 10.0%restricted 35.0%mil spec 10.0%violet 13.5%best hit $2,033 (21.67x)