Geisha
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.57
49.39 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $31.43 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.39%
765 openings, odds method
Variance
15.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 765 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarygaxon$34.6449.48 coins$515736 coins14.87x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com$34.5749.39 coins$33.3047.57 coins0.96x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $34.57 | 90.92% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $34.38 | 90.90% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.64 | 90.91% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 23.8%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 37.0%mil spec 0.4%high 16.2%industrial 22.5%best hit $515 (14.87x)