Gem Hunter
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.32
1.88 coins
Advertised RTP
90.88%
EV $1.20 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.95%
38.5K openings, odds method
Variance
9.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
41.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 10,000,000 | $7,294 10,420 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 10,000,000 | $6,125 8,750 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 10,000,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 333 | $32.82 46.89 coins | 8.2% | 108 | 115.7 | 0.93× |
| Nova | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $7.21 10.3 coins | 3.0% | 192 | 192.8 | 1.00× |
| SSG 08 | Red Stone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 1 in 100 | $3.90 5.57 coins | 3.3% | 369 | 385.7 | 0.96× |
| Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 40.0% | $2.32 3.31 coins | 77.5% | 15,388 | 15426.4 | 1.00× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 58.2% | $0.16 0.23 coins | 7.8% | 22,509 | 22445.4 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $1.32 | 90.88% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.36 | 90.75% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.37 | 90.82% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $1.37 | 90.82% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $1.40 | 90.95% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.50 | 90.79% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%industrial 0.3%restricted 0.5%consumer 1.0%mil spec 98.2%best hit —