Genius
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.25
20.36 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $12.95 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.98%
2,578 openings, odds method
Variance
7.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 26
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,578 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.25 | 90.89% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.31 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.63 | 90.92% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.9%extraordinary 6.8%remarkable 3.1%#8847ff 4.4%base 6.0%restricted 35.4%exotic 12.5%high 18.0%uncommon 9.9%best hit $582 (39.76x)