Gentlemen

A case on CSGORoll (knives, rifles, gloves, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$38.61

55.15 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $35.10 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.07%

480 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

62 openings · below min

7 days

79.81%±16.50362 openings

30 days

83.07%±14.34480 openings

since tracking started

83.07%±14.34480 openings

54.0%94.3%134.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	62	94.33%±39.5	—	odds
7d	362	79.81%±16.5	−1.3σ	odds
30d	480	83.07%±14.3	−1.1σ	odds
All	480	83.07%±14.3	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 480 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$706 1,008 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$587 838 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$561 801 coins	1.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$546 780 coins	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$401 573 coins	4.6%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 167	$309 441 coins	5.3%	2	2.9	0.69×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$255 364 coins	1.5%	2	1.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$248 354 coins	7.1%	6	4.8	1.25×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 125	$235 336 coins	5.4%	6	3.8	1.56×
★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covert	1 in 118	$172 245 coins	4.2%	1	4.1	0.25×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$167 238 coins	7.1%	1	7.2	0.14×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$125 179 coins	7.1%	7	9.6	0.73×
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 47	$97.30 139 coins	6.0%	10	10.3	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 40	$91.70 131 coins	6.5%	16	12.0	1.33×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow DaggersStatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 38	$88.20 126 coins	6.5%	8	12.5	0.64×
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 48	$77.00 110 coins	4.6%	9	10.1	0.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$41.84 59.77 coins	5.0%	26	20.2	1.29×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$38.47 54.96 coins	5.8%	30	25.4	1.18×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$32.30 46.14 coins	4.3%	27	22.6	1.20×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$31.17 44.53 coins	3.6%	23	19.2	1.20×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$23.30 33.28 coins	4.0%	36	28.8	1.25×
Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$21.61 30.87 coins	3.7%	36	28.8	1.25×
USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$11.75 16.78 coins	2.3%	39	33.6	1.16×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$6.40 9.14 coins	1.3%	36	34.6	1.04×
Souvenir AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$3.67 5.24 coins	0.8%	26	36.0	0.72×
SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 12	$2.02 2.89 coins	0.5%	29	39.5	0.73×
MP9 \| Featherweight (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.5%	$0.49 0.7 coins	0.2%	55	55.2	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial	11.5%	$0.08 0.12 coins	0.0%	49	55.2	0.89×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$38.6155.15 coins$21.6130.87 coins0.56x35m

USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$38.6155.15 coins$11.7516.78 coins0.30x35m

★ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert$38.6155.15 coins$248354 coins6.42x35m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$38.6155.15 coins$125179 coins3.25x35m

★ Skeleton Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · epic$38.6155.15 coins$235336 coins6.09x35m

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classifiedEl Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐$38.6155.15 coins$23.3033.28 coins0.60x35m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$38.6155.15 coins$6.409.14 coins0.17x6h

UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial$38.6155.15 coins$0.080.12 coins0.00x6h

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$38.6155.15 coins$91.70131 coins2.38x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$38.61	90.91%	28
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$38.61	90.91%	28
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$38.26	90.91%	28
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$37.91	90.91%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 16.9%extraordinary 0.6%epic 1.4%restricted 6.2%industrial 31.0%classified 10.7%mil spec 33.2%best hit —