Ghosted

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.83

18.33 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

80.97%

20.7K openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.17%±14.682,946 openings

7 days

80.29%±5.4217.5K openings

30 days

80.97%±5.1520.7K openings

since tracking started

80.97%±5.1520.7K openings

74.0%89.3%104.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,946	89.17%±14.7	—	sample
7d	17.5K	80.29%±5.42	—	sample
30d	20.7K	80.97%±5.15	—	sample
All	20.7K	80.97%±5.15	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSGORoll publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$12.7118.16 coins$1,2211,744 coins96.04x4h

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$12.6818.12 coins$1,2211,744 coins96.25x17h

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$12.6818.12 coins$1,2211,744 coins96.25x18h

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$12.6618.09 coins$1,2211,744 coins96.41x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert`FluffyFlow⭕⃤$12.6618.09 coins$1,2211,744 coins96.41x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertMivjoh$12.6618.09 coins$1,2211,744 coins96.41x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$12.6618.09 coins$1,2211,744 coins96.41x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$12.6618.09 coins$1,2211,744 coins96.41x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$12.7118.16 coins$0.290.42 coins0.02x17m

StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$12.7118.16 coins$6.899.84 coins0.54x17m

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialPOOF$12.7118.16 coins$0.290.42 coins0.02x17m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$12.7118.16 coins$7.6410.91 coins0.60x17m

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialBiO-HaZarD$12.7118.16 coins$0.290.42 coins0.02x19m

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$12.7118.16 coins$0.290.42 coins0.02x19m

StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$12.7118.16 coins$40.1357.33 coins3.16x19m

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$12.7118.16 coins$2.223.17 coins0.17x20m

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$12.7118.16 coins$0.290.42 coins0.02x20m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPOOF$12.7118.16 coins$17.3424.77 coins1.36x20m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,221 (96.04x)