Ghostly

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$97.48

139 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $88.62 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.82%

208 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

31 openings · below min

7 days

88.88%±23.23176 openings

30 days

86.82%±21.37208 openings

since tracking started

86.82%±21.37208 openings

26.5%82.5%138.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	31	82.30%±55.4	—	odds
7d	176	88.88%±23.2	−0.2σ	odds
30d	208	86.82%±21.4	−0.4σ	odds
All	208	86.82%±21.4	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 208 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 3,333	$1,802 2,575 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,229 1,755 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$952 1,360 coins	1.1%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$820 1,171 coins	7.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$631 902 coins	7.1%	3	2.1	1.44×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 67	$549 784 coins	9.3%	3	3.1	0.96×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 50	$366 523 coins	8.3%	3	4.2	0.72×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$334 477 coins	11.3%	4	6.2	0.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 40	$310 443 coins	8.7%	3	5.2	0.58×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 29	$251 358 coins	9.9%	10	7.3	1.37×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$173 247 coins	7.8%	10	8.3	1.20×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 22	$144 206 coins	7.3%	16	9.4	1.71×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 20	$139 199 coins	7.9%	10	10.4	0.96×
★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 15	$94.50 135 coins	6.9%	17	13.5	1.26×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$65.65 93.78 coins	4.1%	14	11.4	1.22×
Sticker \| Perry (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 13	$2.83 4.04 coins	0.3%	16	16.6	0.96×
Sticker \| Stan (Holo)sticker · remarkable	14.0%	$2.21 3.16 coins	0.3%	33	29.1	1.13×
Sticker \| Joan (Holo)sticker · remarkable	14.0%	$1.92 2.74 coins	0.3%	27	29.1	0.93×
Sticker \| Jack (Holo)sticker · remarkable	10.0%	$1.57 2.24 coins	0.2%	19	20.8	0.91×
Sticker \| Viggo (Holo)sticker · remarkable	14.0%	$1.53 2.19 coins	0.2%	20	29.1	0.69×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$98.60141 coins$645921 coins6.54x4d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$98.60141 coins$645921 coins6.54x5d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert$98.60141 coins$566809 coins5.74x4d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covertcoco$98.60141 coins$566809 coins5.74x5d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert$97.48139 coins$549784 coins5.63x11h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Stan (Holo)sticker · remarkablePontus$97.48139 coins$2.213.16 coins0.02x11h

Sticker | Perry (Holo)sticker · Mythical$97.48139 coins$2.834.04 coins0.03x11h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert$97.48139 coins$549784 coins5.63x11h

Sticker | Jack (Holo)sticker · remarkablePontus$97.48139 coins$1.572.24 coins0.02x11h

Sticker | Jack (Holo)sticker · remarkable$97.48139 coins$1.572.24 coins0.02x11h

Sticker | Perry (Holo)sticker · Mythical$97.48139 coins$2.834.04 coins0.03x11h

Sticker | Jack (Holo)sticker · remarkable$97.48139 coins$1.572.24 coins0.02x11h

Sticker | Jack (Holo)sticker · remarkable$97.48139 coins$1.572.24 coins0.02x20h

Sticker | Perry (Holo)sticker · Mythical$97.48139 coins$2.834.04 coins0.03x20h

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$97.48139 coins$251358 coins2.57x20h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$97.48	90.91%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$97.74	90.91%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$98.60	90.91%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 2.5%covert 31.2%mil spec 0.8%classified 5.5%Mythical 8.0%remarkable 52.0%best hit $645 (6.54x)