Gilded Dream
A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.19
54.56 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $34.72 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.60%
6,082 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,082 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$38.1254.46 coins$1,7572,510 coins46.09x
Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$38.1254.46 coins$1,7572,510 coins46.09x
Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$38.1254.46 coins$1,7572,510 coins46.09x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$38.1954.56 coins$1,2951,850 coins33.91x
Sticker | DickStacy (Gold) | Katowice 2019sticker · extraordinary$38.1254.46 coins$636909 coins16.69x
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$38.1954.56 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$38.1954.56 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.19 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $38.27 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.12 | 90.90% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.2%extraordinary 0.1%classified 1.0%legendary 1.7%Ancient 3.0%restricted 4.0%consumer 85.0%best hit $1,757 (46.09x)