Goblin
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.81
56.87 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $36.19 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.49%
1,309 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,309 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · restrictedEl Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐$39.8156.87 coins$8.9112.73 coins0.22x
MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classifiedfast csgoroll.com$39.8156.87 coins$22.3531.93 coins0.56x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $39.81 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.59 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.84 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 22.1%extraordinary 3.0%classified 22.9%restricted 52.0%best hit $559 (14.38x)