Godlike 1%
A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$143.13
204 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $130.12 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.51%
1,054 openings, odds method
Variance
207.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 667
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1,054 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,054 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryChickenDinner CSGORoll.com$144205 coins$63.7K90,950 coins443.6x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covertpp hurt$144205 coins$9,07612,965 coins63.24x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$143204 coins$8,88012,685 coins62.04x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$144205 coins$6,6649,520 coins46.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$144205 coins$6,1258,750 coins42.68x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldTHIS IS MY JUICE$144205 coins$6,1258,750 coins42.68x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$144205 coins$6,0628,660 coins42.24x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$144205 coins$4,5056,435 coins31.39x
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$143204 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $144 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%remarkable 0.1%contraband 0.1%covert 0.5%extraordinary 0.1%consumer 99.0%best hit $63.7K (443.6x)