Gold Fever
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,023.60
1,462 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $930.55 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
146.10%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 11.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 1 in 34 | $8,887 12,695 coins | 27.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $6,542 9,345 coins | 21.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 24 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 10.0% | $1,288 1,840 coins | 13.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 22 | $1,047 1,495 coins | 5.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 22 | $1,018 1,454 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 70.0% | $137 196 coins | 10.3% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,0241,462 coins$1,2881,840 coins1.26x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,0241,462 coins$1,2881,840 coins1.26x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$1,0241,462 coins$137196 coins0.13x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$1,0351,479 coins$145207 coins0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,024 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,035 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 97.1%legendary 2.9%best hit $10.8K (10.46x)