Golden Leaves
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$445.14
636 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $404.68 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
112.89%
60 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 60 openings and 12.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary | 10.0% | $1,528 2,183 coins | 37.8% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $1,518 2,169 coins | 37.5% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.67× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,384 1,977 coins | 17.1% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $1,233 1,762 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 57.5% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 34 | 34.5 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $445 | 90.91% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $445 | 90.91% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $457 | 90.91% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 10.0%covert 17.5%consumer 72.5%best hit $1,673 (3.66x)