Goliath

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6,832.20

9,760 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $6,211.09 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

64.18%

9 openings, odds method

Variance

7.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

9 openings · below min

30 days

9 openings · below min

since tracking started

9 openings · below min

-0.5%124.0%248.5%

Small sample. 9 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	9	64.18%±183.5	—	odds
30d	9	64.18%±183.5	—	odds
All	9	64.18%±183.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) #387 (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 10,000	$700K 1,000,000 coins	1.1%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Pascha sticker (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · legendary	1 in 2,000	$385K 550,000 coins	3.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 500	$210K 300,000 coins	6.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 200	$98K 140,000 coins	7.9%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100	$63.7K 90,950 coins	10.3%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 50	$38K 54,245 coins	12.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$30.1K 42,950 coins	9.7%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 31	$21.8K 31,155 coins	11.2%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 13	$20.8K 29,650 coins	26.7%	0	0.7	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 33	$17.6K 25,125 coins	8.5%	0	0.3	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$11.5K 16,375 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	80.0%	$190 271 coins	2.4%	8	7.2	1.11×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.