Goop
A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,489.29
2,128 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $1,353.90 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.80%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 200 | $56K 80,000 coins | 20.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x Titan (Holo) (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 1 in 100 | $28K 40,000 coins | 20.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 67 | $9,342 13,345 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 11 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 25.9% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.85× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 13.0% | $1,077 1,539 coins | 10.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 25.0% | $337 482 coins | 6.2% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 25.0% | $241 345 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 25.0% | $74.90 107 coins | 1.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,5082,155 coins$4,0535,790 coins2.69x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,5082,155 coins$4,0535,790 coins2.69x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$1,5082,155 coins$1,1021,574 coins0.73x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$1,5082,155 coins$1,1021,574 coins0.73x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$1,5082,155 coins$220314 coins0.15x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,5082,155 coins$4,0535,790 coins2.69x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$1,5082,155 coins$1,1021,574 coins0.73x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,5082,155 coins$4,0535,790 coins2.69x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1,489 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,490 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,508 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.5%covert 98.5%best hit $4,053 (2.69x)