Gramophone
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$42.09
60.13 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $38.27 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.57%
320 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 320 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$42.0960.13 coins$86.80124 coins2.06x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Arcs$42.0960.13 coins$86.80124 coins2.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $42.09 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $42.22 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $42.11 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $42.55 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $42.47 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.75 | 90.90% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.0%covert 25.1%rare 0.5%epic 0.7%classified 41.7%violet 20.0%remarkable 12.0%best hit —