Grand Heist
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.67
53.82 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $34.25 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.81%
2,768 openings, odds method
Variance
64.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 118
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,768 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertmickarmement100k$37.6053.72 coins$4,6316,615 coins123.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
MP7 | Vault Heist (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialmike oxlong$37.6753.82 coins$1.992.84 coins0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $37.67 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $37.83 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $37.35 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $37.62 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $37.60 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.82 | 90.91% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.9%rare 0.5%epic 0.6%industrial 96.0%best hit $10.8K (287.9x)