Grapple
A case on CSGORoll (gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$103.02
147 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $93.65 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
147.95%
151 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.91% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (100.77% – 195.13%, 151 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 151 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epicdr cheryll erwin$103148 coins$3,4234,890 coins33.13x
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Factory New)gloves · legendarydr cheryll erwin$103148 coins$517738 coins5.00x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryLucky Buddha$103147 coins$95.20136 coins0.92x
Chef d'Escadron Rouchard | Gendarmerie Nationaleagent · masterLucky Buddha$103147 coins$15.5822.26 coins0.15x
Bloody Darryl The Strapped | The Professionalsagent · superiorLucky Buddha$103147 coins$27.0538.65 coins0.26x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryLucky Buddha$103147 coins$26.3637.66 coins0.26x
★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryLucky Buddha$103147 coins$235336 coins2.28x
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$103147 coins$42.8861.26 coins0.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $103 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $103 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $103 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.3%legendary 1.7%extraordinary 33.5%rare 1.4%superior 14.0%distinguished 19.2%master 30.0%best hit $3,423 (33.13x)