Green Flag

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$45.07

64.38 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $40.97 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.68%

470 openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

95.13%±21.84358 openings

30 days

93.68%±19.05470 openings

since tracking started

93.68%±19.05470 openings

-0.5%72.3%145.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	40.91%±103.7	—	odds
7d	358	95.13%±21.8	+0.4σ	odds
30d	470	93.68%±19.0	+0.3σ	odds
All	470	93.68%±19.0	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 470 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$693 990 coins	16.9%	5	4.7	1.06×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 222	$587 838 coins	6.4%	5	2.1	2.36×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 222	$398 569 coins	4.4%	2	2.1	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$378 540 coins	5.5%	3	2.8	1.06×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$295 421 coins	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 26	$209 299 coins	19.4%	17	17.9	0.95×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$99.40 142 coins	12.1%	18	23.5	0.77×
Berlin 2019 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokensother · base	1 in 20	$79.80 114 coins	9.7%	18	23.5	0.77×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$47.80 68.28 coins	7.2%	25	29.1	0.86×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$45.89 65.55 coins	6.9%	25	29.1	0.86×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$19.75 28.21 coins	3.4%	39	32.9	1.19×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$16.17 23.1 coins	0.5%	10	5.6	1.77×
Sticker \| Team Spirit (Holo) \| Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable	1 in 13	$15.67 22.39 coins	2.9%	48	35.3	1.36×
Souvenir AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$6.55 9.36 coins	1.3%	39	39.0	1.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 14	$6.03 8.62 coins	1.0%	33	32.9	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$3.09 4.42 coins	0.6%	25	37.6	0.66×
Sealed Graffiti \| OpTic Gaming \| Atlanta 2017graffiti · high	1 in 11	$3.06 4.37 coins	0.7%	49	42.3	1.16×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.5%	$1.01 1.44 coins	0.3%	53	49.4	1.07×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.8%	$0.95 1.36 coins	0.3%	56	59.9	0.93×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restrictedElze$45.1264.45 coins$693990 coins15.36x2d

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restrictedUser#966$45.1264.46 coins$693990 coins15.36x2d

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted$44.9364.18 coins$693990 coins15.43x6d

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted$44.9364.18 coins$693990 coins15.43x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$45.1264.45 coins$587838 coins13.00x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$45.1264.46 coins$587838 coins13.00x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$44.9364.19 coins$536765 coins11.92x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinarymickarmement100k$44.9364.18 coins$536765 coins11.92x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$44.9364.18 coins$536765 coins11.92x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6$45.0764.38 coins$6.038.62 coins0.13x1h

Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$45.0764.38 coins$6.559.36 coins0.15x1h

Sealed Graffiti | OpTic Gaming | Atlanta 2017graffiti · high$45.0764.38 coins$3.064.37 coins0.07x1h

Berlin 2019 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokensother · base$45.0764.38 coins$79.80114 coins1.77x1h

Berlin 2019 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokensother · base🔸Regular🔸$45.0764.38 coins$79.80114 coins1.77x1h

Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$45.0764.38 coins$6.559.36 coins0.15x1h

Sticker | Team Spirit (Holo) | Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable$45.0764.38 coins$15.6722.39 coins0.35x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:18 UTC	$45.07	90.90%	19
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$45.12	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$45.12	90.90%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$45.03	90.91%	19
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$44.93	90.90%	19
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC	$44.93	90.91%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$44.93	90.90%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 31.1%extraordinary 0.9%covert 3.9%classified 11.2%base 5.0%mil spec 16.5%remarkable 7.5%#d32ce6 7.0%industrial 8.0%high 9.0%best hit $693 (15.36x)