Green Light
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.26
36.09 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $22.96 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.00%
1,217 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,217 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 10,000 | $6,269 8,955 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 400 | $370 529 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 80 | $59.14 84.48 coins | 3.2% | 15 | 15.2 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $53.17 75.95 coins | 20.8% | 98 | 109.5 | 0.89× |
| Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.5% | $49.00 70 coins | 22.4% | 119 | 127.7 | 0.93× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 11 | $42.19 60.27 coins | 16.5% | 117 | 109.5 | 1.07× |
| Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $15.44 22.06 coins | 13.4% | 257 | 243.4 | 1.06× |
| Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $11.80 16.86 coins | 15.4% | 351 | 365.1 | 0.96× |
| Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.61 2.3 coins | 1.4% | 257 | 243.4 | 1.06× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$25.6336.62 coins$6,4659,235 coins252.2x
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialVeckans$25.2636.09 coins$15.4422.06 coins0.61x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.26 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.58 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.63 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%restricted 20.3%mil spec 1.3%covert 18.0%classified 40.5%industrial 20.0%best hit $6,465 (252.2x)