Greenfingers

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$64.66

92.37 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $58.78 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.31%

196 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

35.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

22 openings · below min

7 days

86.07%±19.77148 openings

30 days

87.31%±17.19196 openings

since tracking started

87.31%±17.19196 openings

21.0%72.8%124.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	22	72.84%±51.1	—	odds
7d	148	86.07%±19.8	−0.5σ	odds
30d	196	87.31%±17.2	−0.4σ	odds
All	196	87.31%±17.2	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 196 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 10,000	$3,311 4,730 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 2,000	$1,546 2,209 coins	1.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$888 1,269 coins	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$533 762 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$465 664 coins	11.9%	4	2.9	1.36×
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$421 601 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$410 585 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$403 575 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$197 281 coins	3.3%	3	2.0	1.53×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$194 277 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$193 275 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 50	$146 208 coins	5.0%	1	3.9	0.26×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.0%	$84.00 120 coins	14.3%	17	19.6	0.87×
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 40	$79.10 113 coins	3.4%	3	4.9	0.61×
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 38	$66.68 95.26 coins	2.9%	2	5.1	0.39×
Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$65.65 93.78 coins	16.8%	30	29.4	1.02×
★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$64.17 91.67 coins	5.5%	13	9.8	1.33×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$52.24 74.63 coins	2.7%	4	5.9	0.68×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$43.81 62.59 coins	7.5%	21	19.6	1.07×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14	$42.19 60.27 coins	5.0%	17	13.7	1.24×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$39.71 56.73 coins	6.8%	18	19.6	0.92×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$27.90 39.86 coins	4.7%	19	19.6	0.97×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$27.10 38.71 coins	4.6%	21	19.6	1.07×
Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	10.0%	$7.68 10.97 coins	1.3%	23	19.6	1.17×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$64.6692.37 coins$64.1791.67 coins0.99x8h

MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified$64.6692.37 coins$39.7156.73 coins0.61x8h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertMedical Shit$64.6692.37 coins$84.00120 coins1.30x8h

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil specbabylaffytaffy$64.6692.37 coins$27.9039.86 coins0.43x8h

Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · industrial$64.6692.37 coins$65.6593.78 coins1.02x14h

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$64.6692.37 coins$42.1960.27 coins0.65x14h

MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified$64.6692.37 coins$39.7156.73 coins0.61x14h

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$64.6692.37 coins$42.1960.27 coins0.65x14h

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryPekkatron$64.6692.37 coins$66.6895.26 coins1.03x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$64.66	90.91%	24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$66.35	90.91%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$66.61	90.91%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.0%covert 27.9%restricted 11.5%extraordinary 5.6%industrial 25.0%classified 20.0%mil spec 10.0%best hit —