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Grinch

A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$11.51
16.44 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $10.46 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.70%
4,785 openings, odds method
Variance
10.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
100.00%±22.81739 openings
7 days
96.36%±9.674,007 openings
30 days
96.70%±8.834,785 openings
since tracking started
96.70%±8.834,785 openings
76.5%100.0%123.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h739100.00%±22.8+0.8σodds
7d4,00796.36%±9.67+1.1σodds
30d4,78596.70%±8.83+1.3σodds
All4,78596.70%±8.83+1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,785 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$587 838 coins2.8%22.40.84×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$506 723 coins4.8%104.82.09×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 667$449 641 coins6.4%57.20.70×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 286$368 526 coins12.3%1916.71.13×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)weapon · covert · Phase 31 in 200$88.90 127 coins4.2%2723.91.13×
P250 | See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 67$68.77 98.25 coins9.9%8571.81.18×
CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 133$59.14 84.48 coins4.2%3535.90.98×
Antwerp 2022 Viewer Passother · base1 in 31$28.49 40.7 coins8.7%157153.11.03×
Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 42$27.90 39.86 coins6.4%106114.80.92×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$27.65 39.5 coins2.6%4647.90.96×
Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 20$22.49 32.13 coins10.7%248239.31.04×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 14$8.50 12.14 coins5.7%329335.00.98×
MP7 | Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 11$8.30 11.86 coins7.1%418430.60.97×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 14$6.18 8.83 coins4.1%338335.01.01×
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial15.0%$3.09 4.42 coins4.4%726717.81.01×
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted10.0%$1.95 2.78 coins1.9%477478.51.00×
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted17.0%$1.09 1.55 coins1.8%771813.50.95×
P90 | Grim (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec20.0%$0.91 1.3 coins1.7%986957.01.03×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$11.6816.69 coins$536765 coins45.84x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$11.6816.69 coins$536765 coins45.84x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldEpexxx$11.5116.44 coins$506723 coins43.98x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldYotamS csgoroll.com$11.5116.44 coins$506723 coins43.98x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.5116.44 coins$506723 coins43.98x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.6116.58 coins$506723 coins43.61x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.6816.69 coins$506723 coins43.32x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.6816.69 coins$506723 coins43.32x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldJALMARI$11.6816.69 coins$506723 coins43.32x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.6816.69 coins$506723 coins43.32x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$11.5116.44 coins$3.094.42 coins0.27x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.5116.44 coins$6.188.83 coins0.54x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$11.5116.44 coins$1.091.55 coins0.09x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restrictedCekoS$11.5116.44 coins$1.952.78 coins0.17x
P90 | Grim (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec$11.5116.44 coins$0.911.3 coins0.08x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$11.5116.44 coins$1.091.55 coins0.09x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$11.5116.44 coins$22.4932.13 coins1.95x
MP7 | Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLidl$11.5116.44 coins$8.3011.86 coins0.72x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restrictedEpexxx$11.5116.44 coins$1.952.78 coins0.17x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restrictedAjax absult 100%$11.5116.44 coins$1.952.78 coins0.17x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC$11.5190.92%18
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$11.5190.93%18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$11.7090.91%18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$11.6890.90%18
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 2.6%mil spec 3.1%base 3.2%classified 1.0%restricted 55.0%industrial 15.0%Mil Spec 20.0%best hit $536 (45.84x)