Grindstone

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$40.01

57.16 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $36.37 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.17%

1,332 openings, odds method

Variance

6.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

58 openings · below min

7 days

88.24%±14.961,070 openings

30 days

88.17%±13.401,332 openings

since tracking started

88.17%±13.401,332 openings

35.0%100.0%165.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	58	99.92%±64.4	—	odds
7d	1,070	88.24%±15.0	−0.3σ	odds
30d	1,332	88.17%±13.4	−0.4σ	odds
All	1,332	88.17%±13.4	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,332 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 200	$891 1,273 coins	12.2%	7	6.7	1.05×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 125	$444 634 coins	9.8%	11	10.7	1.03×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$377 539 coins	20.7%	25	26.6	0.94×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$251 359 coins	8.3%	15	16.0	0.94×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$192 274 coins	15.8%	39	40.0	0.98×
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$118 169 coins	13.0%	47	53.3	0.88×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 12	$78.40 112 coins	18.3%	111	113.2	0.98×
Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$13.01 18.59 coins	1.8%	68	66.6	1.02×
G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	342	333.0	1.03×
SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	338	333.0	1.02×
Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	329	333.0	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$40.0157.16 coins$8911,273 coins22.27x1d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$40.0157.16 coins$8911,273 coins22.27x2d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl🌌Satoru Gojo🌌$40.0657.23 coins$8911,273 coins22.24x4d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$40.0657.23 coins$8911,273 coins22.24x4d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$40.0657.23 coins$8911,273 coins22.24x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$40.0157.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Galil AR | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$40.0157.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$40.0157.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Galil AR | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$40.0157.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$40.0157.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Shiba inu$40.0157.16 coins$444634 coins11.09x1h

Galil AR | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerShiba inu$40.0157.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Galil AR | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$40.0157.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$40.0157.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Galil AR | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$40.0157.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$40.01	90.91%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$40.07	90.91%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$40.06	90.91%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.8%classified 6.0%mil spec 9.2%consumer 75.0%best hit $891 (22.27x)