Guerilla Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.43
9.18 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $5.84 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.83%
8,781 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,817 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedTerroristi$6.439.18 coins$13.0218.6 coins2.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.43 | 90.93% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $6.43 | 90.92% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $6.43 | 90.93% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.43 | 90.88% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.35 | 90.96% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $6.34 | 90.95% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $6.34 | 90.88% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.34 | 90.94% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.7%rare 0.0%classified 19.4%blue 3.1%restricted 11.0%consumer 22.0%mil spec 42.8%best hit $580 (91.39x)