Halftime
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.61
56.58 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $36.00 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.82%
5,327 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,327 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerDoktoraiai$39.6156.58 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerEl Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐$39.6156.58 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.6156.58 coins$80.50115 coins2.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $39.61 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.82 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $40.41 | 90.92% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.0%covert 30.2%contraband 0.0%extraordinary 3.8%classified 5.0%Ancient 11.0%consumer 50.0%best hit $4,270 (105.7x)