Halfway
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$58.40
83.43 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $53.09 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.25%
383 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 383 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covertsirwins.a.not$59.6585.22 coins$642917 coins10.76x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $58.40 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $58.39 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $58.74 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $59.65 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 35.3%classified 5.0%legendary 0.3%extraordinary 8.0%mil spec 51.5%best hit $642 (10.76x)