Harakiri

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.54

25.06 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $15.95 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.83%

4,155 openings, odds method

Variance

6.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.58%±25.46375 openings

7 days

92.12%±8.543,419 openings

30 days

93.83%±7.764,155 openings

since tracking started

93.83%±7.764,155 openings

54.5%80.5%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	375	80.58%±25.5	−0.8σ	odds
7d	3,419	92.12%±8.54	+0.3σ	odds
30d	4,155	93.83%±7.76	+0.7σ	odds
All	4,155	93.83%±7.76	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,155 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$4,088 5,840 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$1,400 2,000 coins	0.7%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$610 872 coins	0.4%	1	0.5	—
Sticker \| 100 Thieves (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · exotic	1 in 1,429	$421 602 coins	1.8%	0	2.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$412 589 coins	2.1%	4	3.3	1.20×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$378 540 coins	5.9%	9	10.4	0.87×
AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 167	$328 468 coins	12.3%	26	24.9	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 114	$177 253 coins	9.8%	50	36.6	1.37×
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 72	$66.84 95.48 coins	5.8%	58	57.3	1.01×
Sticker \| HellRaisers \| DreamHack 2014sticker · high	1 in 69	$59.18 84.54 coins	5.4%	49	60.2	0.81×
Sticker \| rain (Foil) \| Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable	1 in 21	$36.68 52.4 coins	10.7%	192	194.0	0.99×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$33.31 47.59 coins	10.7%	223	211.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$22.20 31.71 coins	11.8%	362	353.2	1.02×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	12.0%	$11.28 16.12 coins	8.5%	474	498.6	0.95×
MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	15.0%	$6.66 9.52 coins	6.3%	640	623.3	1.03×
Sticker \| Ruby Wave (Lenticular)sticker · #eb4b4b	19.0%	$3.33 4.76 coins	4.0%	770	789.5	0.98×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	31.0%	$1.83 2.61 coins	3.6%	1,296	1288.0	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$17.5625.09 coins$1,4002,000 coins79.71x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covertlancer_0$17.5625.09 coins$638912 coins36.35x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular)sticker · #eb4b4b$17.5425.06 coins$3.334.76 coins0.19x20m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSuperbukeN$17.5425.06 coins$1.832.61 coins0.10x20m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$17.5425.06 coins$22.2031.71 coins1.27x20m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$17.5425.06 coins$1.832.61 coins0.10x54m

MP9 | Airlock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$17.5425.06 coins$6.669.52 coins0.38x54m

Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular)sticker · #eb4b4b$17.5425.06 coins$3.334.76 coins0.19x54m

Souvenir Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$17.5425.06 coins$11.2816.12 coins0.64x54m

Souvenir Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specTyrone$17.5425.06 coins$11.2816.12 coins0.64x54m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTyrone$17.5425.06 coins$1.832.61 coins0.10x56m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$17.54	90.90%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$17.41	90.92%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$17.56	90.92%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 4.7%covert 2.3%exotic 0.1%restricted 39.6%classified 20.3%mil spec 12.6%high 1.5%#eb4b4b 19.0%best hit $1,400 (79.71x)