Hardened Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$60.00
85.72 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $54.55 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.60%
135 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 135 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $762 1,088 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $605 864 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $470 672 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $384 549 coins | 35.2% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $337 482 coins | 18.6% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.23× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $79.10 113 coins | 7.3% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.89× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $48.94 69.91 coins | 4.5% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 80.0% | $9.09 12.99 coins | 13.3% | 115 | 108.0 | 1.06× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$61.5487.91 coins$629899 coins10.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedbmfaby$60.0085.72 coins$9.0912.99 coins0.15x
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarybmfaby$60.0085.72 coins$48.9469.91 coins0.82x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $60.00 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $61.24 | 90.90% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $61.54 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 14.5%classified 0.5%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 80.0%best hit $629 (10.23x)