Hardline Case

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$63.11

90.15 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $57.37 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.72%

165 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

79.48%±20.63145 openings

30 days

75.72%±19.34165 openings

since tracking started

75.72%±19.34165 openings

55.5%78.3%101.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	145	79.48%±20.6	−1.1σ	odds
30d	165	75.72%±19.3	−1.5σ	odds
All	165	75.72%±19.3	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 165 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$1,114 1,591 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,068 1,526 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,035 1,478 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$947 1,353 coins	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$566 809 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 2,000	$507 725 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$293 418 coins	5.1%	3	1.7	1.82×
P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$260 371 coins	13.6%	2	5.0	0.40×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 40	$221 316 coins	9.6%	4	4.1	0.97×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$174 249 coins	3.0%	1	1.7	0.61×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$164 234 coins	14.1%	6	8.2	0.73×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$158 225 coins	1.4%	0	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	11.9%	$134 192 coins	27.8%	12	19.6	0.61×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	25.0%	$53.33 76.19 coins	23.2%	54	41.3	1.31×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	50.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	83	82.5	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$63.1190.15 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$63.1190.15 coins$53.3376.19 coins0.85x1d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertwonder$63.1190.15 coins$53.3376.19 coins0.85x1d

P250 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$63.1190.15 coins$260371 coins4.12x1d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$63.1190.15 coins$53.3376.19 coins0.85x1d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertmathnexo$63.1190.15 coins$53.3376.19 coins0.85x1d

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$63.1190.15 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$63.1190.15 coins$53.3376.19 coins0.85x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$63.11	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$63.35	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$64.27	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 11.9%covert 33.1%epic 0.1%restricted 1.0%mil spec 3.0%extraordinary 1.0%consumer 50.0%best hit —