Harmony
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.65
16.65 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $10.59 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.38%
2,589 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,589 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$11.6516.65 coins$13.9219.89 coins1.19x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.6516.65 coins$21.8831.26 coins1.88x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.6516.65 coins$10.5015 coins0.90x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $11.65 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.67 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.70 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $11.73 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $11.75 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.82 | 90.92% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%rare 1.8%uncommon 0.4%classified 32.3%restricted 34.6%mil spec 3.2%consumer 5.7%high 22.0%best hit —