Harvester
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.40
23.43 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $14.91 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.52%
47.5K openings, odds method
Variance
9.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Stained (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialLegend$16.4023.43 coins$0.080.11 coins0.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLegend$16.4023.43 coins$141202 coins8.62x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $16.40 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.40 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.45 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.48 | 90.90% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.7%exotic 0.4%classified 3.9%legendary 0.2%extraordinary 0.6%epic 0.1%industrial 90.0%best hit $926 (56.20x)