Haystack
A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$281.94
403 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $256.31 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.52%
721 openings, odds method
Variance
127.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 721 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 721 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$282403 coins$21.8K31,155 coins77.35x
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$282403 coins$20.8K29,650 coins73.62x
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryUser#453$282403 coins$4,2886,125 coins15.21x
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendarytiltedfish$282403 coins$4,2886,125 coins15.21x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $282 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $282 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.4%remarkable 0.5%base 0.1%consumer 99.0%best hit $63.7K (225.8x)