Hazard

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.76

1.08 coins

Advertised RTP

90.95%

EV $0.69 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.85%

65.8K openings, odds method

Variance

326.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 113

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.35%±43.006,773 openings

7 days

94.47%±15.0156.4K openings

30 days

91.85%±13.9165.8K openings

since tracking started

91.85%±13.9165.8K openings

50.5%94.2%138.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,773	94.35%±43.0	+0.2σ	odds
7d	56.4K	94.47%±15.0	+0.4σ	odds
30d	65.8K	91.85%±13.9	+0.1σ	odds
All	65.8K	91.85%±13.9	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100,000	$3,923 5,605 coins	5.7%	1	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$370 529 coins	5.4%	6	6.6	0.91×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$190 271 coins	2.8%	8	6.6	1.21×
★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$181 258 coins	2.6%	4	6.6	0.61×
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$162 231 coins	2.4%	6	6.6	0.91×
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$128 183 coins	1.9%	10	6.6	1.52×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$88.20 126 coins	1.3%	5	6.6	0.76×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$65.79 93.98 coins	4.8%	29	33.0	0.88×
P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,000	$51.53 73.61 coins	1.9%	18	16.5	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$45.38 64.83 coins	3.3%	32	33.0	0.97×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$41.94 59.92 coins	3.0%	29	33.0	0.88×
P90 \| Scorched (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 1,000	$26.52 37.89 coins	3.9%	68	66.0	1.03×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$25.70 36.72 coins	3.7%	53	66.0	0.80×
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$24.75 35.36 coins	1.8%	30	33.0	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$21.55 30.78 coins	3.1%	61	66.0	0.92×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,000	$8.86 12.65 coins	1.3%	69	66.0	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 500	$8.64 12.34 coins	2.5%	154	131.9	1.17×
Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 500	$3.90 5.57 coins	1.1%	125	131.9	0.95×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 200	$2.02 2.89 coins	1.5%	325	329.8	0.99×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	98.4%	$0.32 0.46 coins	46.1%	64,933	64919.8	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$0.751.07 coins$3,9235,605 coins5,238x6d

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$0.751.07 coins$392560 coins523.4x4d

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$0.761.08 coins$370529 coins489.8x9h

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$0.761.08 coins$370529 coins489.8x14h

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$0.761.08 coins$370529 coins489.8x1d

★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$0.751.07 coins$190272 coins254.2x4d

★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covertpatrisha go go$0.751.07 coins$190272 coins254.2x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$0.761.08 coins$0.320.46 coins0.43x4m

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specK1NG$0.761.08 coins$0.320.46 coins0.43x4m

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$0.761.08 coins$0.320.46 coins0.43x4m

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specK1NG$0.761.08 coins$0.320.46 coins0.43x4m

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$0.761.08 coins$0.320.46 coins0.43x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.76	90.95%	20
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$0.76	91.05%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$0.75	90.79%	20
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC	$0.75	91.15%	20
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.75	91.13%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.75	91.02%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 98.6%classified 0.4%consumer 0.1%uncommon 0.6%industrial 0.2%best hit $3,923 (5,238x)