Hazard Zone
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.51
6.44 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $4.10 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.04%
18.6K openings, odds method
Variance
10.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Negev | Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$4.516.44 coins$2.072.96 coins0.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.51 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.51 | 90.89% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.57 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.58 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $4.58 | 90.94% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.59 | 90.87% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.59 | 90.91% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.1%extraordinary 0.9%restricted 9.6%Mythical 1.0%mil spec 42.1%Mil Spec Grade 1.2%base 5.0%industrial 8.1%#4b69ff 30.0%best hit —