Heart attack
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.32
1.88 coins
Advertised RTP
90.78%
EV $1.19 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.23%
21K openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedUser#869$1.301.85 coins$69.8399.76 coins53.92x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.301.85 coins$66.3794.82 coins51.25x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertSnickers layer$1.301.85 coins$66.3794.82 coins51.25x
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedCARRITOS MAISTER$1.321.88 coins$0.500.71 coins0.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.78%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $1.32 | 90.78% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $1.32 | 90.77% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.32 | 90.78% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.31 | 91.00% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $1.30 | 90.79% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $1.30 | 90.79% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $1.30 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.30 | 90.90% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.0%rare 0.0%covert 0.0%restricted 50.1%remarkable 47.8%classified 1.3%Ancient 0.1%Mythical 0.3%uncommon 0.5%best hit $69.83 (53.92x)